Tesla (TSLA-US) remains the lone outlier among the seven tech giants this year, still shy of setting a fresh all-time high. Yet its stock is inching closer to the record closing price of $479.86 from December 2024, finishing Thursday (Dec. 4) at $454.48, just 5% below that peak. Shares are up 11% year-to-date, outperforming Amazon (AMZN-US) but trailing the broader S&P 500.
A Volatile 2025
For Tesla investors, 2025 has been a rollercoaster. Early optimism about Elon Musk’s ties to the Trump administration gave way to backlash over his political involvement, eroding gains. Meanwhile, Tesla's electric vehicle sales have declined for a second straight year, pressured by fierce competition from Chinese automakers.
Still, recent advances in AI and robotics have revived momentum. Shareholders’ approval of Musk’s $1 trillion compensation package in November boosted confidence, binding him to Tesla for at least a decade. Portfolio manager Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management noted the package removes uncertainty and incentivizes Musk to expand Tesla’s market cap to $8.5 trillion to unlock full rewards.
Robotaxi Expansion
One near-term catalyst is Tesla’s Robotaxi service, launched earlier this year in Austin, Texas, and the San Francisco Bay Area. While current operations require safety monitors, Tesla aims to expand to at least seven cities by year-end, with Austin achieving true driverless operation.
Musk posted on X that Austin’s fleet will "roughly double" in December. Outsourced data estimates about 29 vehicles in Austin and 122 in the Bay Area, suggesting Austin could reach 60 vehicles by month’s end. Though far below Musk’s initial targets of 500 in Austin and 1,000 in the Bay Area, analysts say investors may still view the growth as a sign of progress.
2026 Outlook
Looking ahead, Tesla plans to begin mass production of dedicated Robotaxis and finally launch the Tesla Semi electric truck. The company is also lobbying European regulators for approval of its advanced driver assistance system, while Chinese regulators are expected to fully approve Tesla’s software next year—moves that could help defend against local rivals.
On the robotics front, Tesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is slated for a public demonstration in early 2026, with mass production by year-end. Morgan Stanley projects the humanoid robot market could exceed $5 trillion by 2050, underscoring the long-term potential of Tesla’s diversification beyond vehicles.
The Bottom Line
Tesla’s stock may lack immediate catalysts to break records before year-end, but its Robotaxi expansion, Musk’s compensation package, and robotics roadmap are keeping investor optimism alive. For now, Tesla’s trajectory hinges on broader market momentum, but 2026 could mark a pivotal year as the company transitions from EV dominance to AI-driven mobility and robotics.