U.S. equities ended Thanksgiving week on a resilient note, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 extending their winning streaks to seven consecutive months. Friday’s shortened "Black Friday" session was anything but quiet, as upbeat news from Intel (INTC) and renewed confidence in a December Federal Reserve rate cut helped offset concerns about overvalued AI stocks. The Nasdaq Composite, however, closed lower for November, snapping a six-month bull run.
Intel Stages a Dramatic Comeback
The spotlight on Friday was firmly on Intel. Long considered a laggard in the semiconductor industry, Intel’s stock surged 10.3% in a single day, making it the standout performer among tech names.
The catalyst was a report from TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, suggesting Intel could begin shipping low-end M-series processors to Apple by 2027. For Intel, which has struggled with outdated manufacturing processes and lost market share to rivals, the news was a confidence booster.
From an industry perspective, the development signals progress for Intel’s foundry business (IFS). While Kuo cautioned that Intel cannot yet compete head-to-head with TSMC in advanced process technologies, securing Apple—a notoriously demanding customer—suggests Intel’s process yield and technology are gaining recognition. For investors, the deal represents not just potential revenue but a symbolic rebuilding of trust in Intel’s turnaround story.
Nvidia Loses Steam as Rotation Emerges
In contrast, Nvidia (NVDA-US) slipped 1.81%, becoming the only declining component in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. The move reflects a subtle but important trend: funds are rotating out of crowded AI trades into established tech stocks with lower valuations and turnaround potential.
Since the third quarter of 2025, investors have begun reassessing the sustainability of AI-driven capital expenditures. While Nvidia remains a dominant player, the market is increasingly cautious about whether massive infrastructure spending will translate into near-term profits.
Tech Giants Mixed as Nasdaq Ends Streak
Among the "Mag 7" tech giants, performance was mixed:
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Alphabet (GOOGL-US) rose just 0.07%, reflecting cautious sentiment amid regulatory pressure and competition.
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Amazon (AMZN-US) gained 1.77%, buoyed by strong Black Friday sales.
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Walmart (WMT-US) touched a record high, signaling consumer resilience despite mixed macro data.
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Meta (META-US) fell 0.41%, while Apple (AAPL-US) edged up 0.21%.
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Microsoft (MSFT-US) rose 1.78%.
Despite Friday’s gains, the Nasdaq Composite posted a 1.51% decline for November, ending its seven-month winning streak. The pullback underscores Wall Street’s growing skepticism about AI monetization. Investors are now scrutinizing whether companies’ massive AI-related capital expenditures can deliver short-term returns.
CME Outage Highlights Infrastructure Risks
Friday’s session also saw a hiccup: the CME Group suspended futures and options trading for several hours due to a data center overheating issue. While the outage was resolved before markets opened, the incident highlighted vulnerabilities in an era dominated by high-frequency trading. Even minor infrastructure failures can ripple across global markets, reminding investors of systemic risks beyond fundamentals.
Fund Flows and Global Rotation
Beyond U.S. equities, fund flows show subtle shifts in global allocation. Chinese concept stocks have stabilized, drawing attention from investors seeking undervalued opportunities. Alibaba’s recovery has sparked renewed interest, while Taiwanese ADRs also gained:
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TSMC ADR (TSM-US) rose 0.53%.
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ASE ADR (ASX-US) rebounded 3.82%.
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UMC ADR (UMC-US) added 0.83%.
These moves suggest the Asian technology supply chain remains attractive to U.S. investors, even as domestic markets dominate headlines.
Interest Rate Cut Bets Surge
Perhaps the most dramatic shift this week was in rate cut expectations. At the start of November, futures markets priced less than a 40% chance of a December cut. But dovish signals from New York Fed President John Williams and Governor Christopher Waller, combined with stable inflation data, have pushed the probability to 80% by Friday’s close, according to CME FedWatch.
The reversal reflects growing confidence in a soft landing, though uncertainty remains. Cole Smead, CEO of Smead Capital Management, cautioned that government data distortions from the recent shutdown could complicate the outlook. Investors remain wary of surprises in upcoming releases.
Looking Ahead: December Data Crucial
With November behind us, attention now turns to December. Key reports next week include the ADP employment report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Fed officials are currently in a blackout period, leaving markets without policy guidance. This means data will drive sentiment. A cooling labor market or unexpectedly strong PCE reading could trigger volatility, reshaping expectations for the Fed’s December meeting.
Market Resilience and Rotation
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3.18%, underscoring resilience despite mixed signals. Yet the cooling of the AI frenzy suggests future gains may rely less on indiscriminate buying and more on stock selection and fundamentals.
Investors are watching closely to see whether holdings continue to shift from overvalued AI names toward value-oriented plays like Intel, Walmart, and select industrials. The rotation reflects a broader recalibration of risk appetite as markets balance optimism about rate cuts with caution over earnings sustainability.
The Bottom Line
Thanksgiving week showcased the market’s ability to absorb shocks—from CME outages to shifting AI narratives—while maintaining upward momentum. Intel’s dramatic comeback provided a reminder that legacy players can still surprise, while Nvidia’s stumble highlighted the risks of crowded trades.
With rate cut bets surging and December data looming, the stage is set for a potentially volatile but opportunity-rich month. For investors, the message is clear: the Christmas rally is still on the table, but fundamentals, liquidity, and sector rotation will determine who benefits most.