Ken Fisher(Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments) recently outlined four of the most common concerns investors are raising—and why some may be less urgent than they appear.
1. Do Stocks Need Fed Rate Cuts Now?
The Federal Reserve’s next move is always top of mind. Some argue that the economy and markets need rate cuts immediately. Cuts can steepen the yield curve—the gap between short- and long-term interest rates—encouraging bank lending. That dynamic has helped Europe and other markets outpace the U.S. this year.
But Fisher notes that America may not be in desperate need of cuts. The U.S. yield curve has already shifted from inverted to flat, and lending growth has accelerated from 2.8% at the end of 2024 to 4.5% now. While cuts could lower long-term rates like mortgages, history shows long rates are set by global markets, not short-term Fed tweaks.
2. Is Reshoring a Game-Changer for Industrials?
Talk of a manufacturing homecoming—reshoring production to the U.S.—has fueled speculation about industrial stocks. But Fisher cautions that where goods are made doesn’t automatically translate into profits. Reshoring often comes with high upfront costs, from stricter environmental regulations to lengthy permitting processes.
Even if reshoring gains traction, it’s a long-term story. Building plants, navigating lawsuits, and overcoming local opposition can take years—well beyond the 3-to-30 month window markets typically focus on. For now, betting on reshoring as a near-term driver looks speculative.
3. Can We Trust the Jobs Data?
Monthly jobs reports are closely watched, but Fisher argues they’re increasingly unreliable. Response rates to government surveys are falling worldwide, leading to frequent revisions. Private-sector data can help cross-check, but the bigger issue is that jobs are a lagging indicator.
Markets usually price in economic realities before employment data confirms them. That means investors shouldn’t overreact to one or two months of noisy numbers. As Fisher puts it, jobs data are "too wiggly" to base sound investment decisions on.
4. Will Trump's OBBBA Threaten Social Security?
President Donald Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)" has raised alarms about Social Security funding. The plan includes a $4,000 SSA tax deduction, which the Social Security Administration estimates could reduce trust fund revenues by $169 billion over the next decade. That would move the projected insolvency date forward by just one quarter, from Q3 2034 to Q1 2034.
But "insolvency" doesn’t mean bankruptcy. Even without changes, payroll taxes would still cover 70% to 80% of benefits through 2100. The deduction itself is temporary, expiring in 2028, and represents only about 4% of SSA revenues. Politicians also have strong incentives to keep Social Security intact, making drastic cuts unlikely.
The Bottom Line
From Fed policy to Social Security, investors have no shortage of worries. But Fisher argues these fears form the classic "Wall of Worry" that often supports bull markets. While risks are real, markets tend to climb as investors grapple with uncertainty—reminding us that not every headline fear deserves equal weight in portfolio decisions.