Market Trends

$200 Billion in AI Debt Raises Systemic Risk Concerns

U.S. companies issued over $200B in AI-related debt this year, led by Meta, Alphabet, and Oracle. Analysts warn the bond boom could distort credit markets and create systemic risks if the AI frenzy cools.

Julian Bennett
Julian Bennett
Director of Financial Planning
$200 Billion in AI Debt Raises Systemic Risk Concerns

The AI boom isn't just reshaping technology—it's also rewriting the rules of corporate finance. U.S. companies have issued more than $200 billion in AI-related debt this year, a record-setting wave of bond sales that analysts warn could create systemic risks if the frenzy continues unchecked.

A Debt-Fueled AI Expansion

According to Goldman Sachs, companies including Meta (META-US), Alphabet (GOOGL-US), and Oracle (ORCL-US) have already raised about $180 billion through bond markets in 2025. Meta alone announced another $30 billion bond sale last week, which drew overwhelming demand—subscriptions reportedly hit $125 billion, the largest order book ever for a U.S. corporate bond deal.

Oracle's September issuance was also oversubscribed, underscoring investor appetite for highly rated tech debt. Together, AI-related bonds now account for more than a quarter of total U.S. corporate debt supply this year.

Market Distortions Emerging

That concentration is raising eyebrows. Gordon Shannon of TwentyFour Asset Management noted that the flood of AI debt is diverting investor demand away from other issuers, potentially crowding out smaller companies.

Gil Luria of DA Davidson added that while current AI bond prices aren’t excessive, the sheer scale of financing needs—hundreds of billions more in the pipeline—could become problematic if the assets funded turn out to be low-return or rapidly depreciating.

Capital Expenditures Keep Climbing

The debt binge reflects the intensive investment cycle underway in AI. Meta has already flagged that its 2026 capital expenditures will be significantly higher than in 2025, as it builds out massive data centers and energy infrastructure.

A Barclays report warned that this wave of financing could "reshape the market structure in the short term," with AI-related issuance dominating corporate bond supply. Analysts cautioned that the "dam could break," unleashing a flood of debt that markets may struggle to absorb.

Liquidity Illusion and Concentration Risk

The surge has also created what some call a "liquidity illusion." With capital still flowing freely, demand for AI bonds looks strong. But if the AI boom cools, liquidity could dry up quickly, leaving investors exposed.

Fraser Lundie of Aviva Investors said the debt surge forces bondholders to ask the same question equity investors face: are AI investments sustainable in the long run? The concentration of debt in a handful of tech giants also raises the sensitivity of the investment-grade market to interest rate shifts.

Jason Borbora-Sheen of Ninety One warned that while the market can currently absorb the supply, valuations could face "significant challenges" if sentiment turns.

The Bigger Risk

Some fund managers worry that if AI financing increasingly relies on capital markets instead of cash flow, the risk of bad debt will rise. Kevin Thozet of Carmignac noted that part of the debt is being raised through private channels, making it less transparent and harder to monitor.

The Bottom Line

For now, investors are happy to bankroll the AI revolution. But with $200 billion in debt already issued this year and more on the way, the question is whether this financing spree is building the future—or laying the groundwork for the next credit crunch.

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