The record-setting 40-day U.S. government shutdown may finally be nearing its end. On Sunday night, President Donald Trump told reporters, "It looks like we’re close to ending the shutdown," as he returned to the White House. His comments came just hours before the Senate prepared to move forward with a vote on a House-passed bill.
The Senate's Strategy
The Senate is expected to amend the House bill into a "minibus" package, combining short-term appropriations to keep the government funded through January 2026 with three full-year spending bills. According to Senate leaders, the measure currently has enough Democratic support to pass.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican, cautioned that the revised package must still clear the House before reaching Trump’s desk. That process could take several days, leaving federal workers and agencies in limbo a bit longer.
Health Care Subsidies at the Center
One of the sticking points has been Affordable Care Act subsidies, which are set to expire. Senate Democrats have boycotted earlier appropriations efforts to pressure Republicans into agreeing to extend the subsidies.
Under the emerging deal, Democrats will get a separate vote on health insurance subsidies at a later date. This compromise appears to have unlocked enough bipartisan support to move the funding package forward.
Market Impact
Markets have been jittery throughout the shutdown, with investors weighing the economic fallout of delayed government services, suspended pay for federal workers, and uncertainty around fiscal policy. The shutdown has already disrupted air travel, food assistance programs, and regulatory approvals, adding to volatility in equities and bonds.
A resolution could provide short-term relief, but analysts warn that the temporary nature of the funding—lasting only until January—means another showdown could loom early next year.
Broader Context
The shutdown has highlighted the growing difficulty of passing long-term appropriations in a polarized Congress. While the Senate’s compromise may reopen the government, the underlying disputes over health care, spending priorities, and executive authority remain unresolved.
For investors, the episode underscores how political gridlock can quickly spill into markets. Safe-haven buying has already pushed the 10-year Treasury yield back to 4%, while equities have retreated from record highs.
The Bottom Line
Trump’s remarks suggest the shutdown could end soon, but the path forward depends on the House and the president’s signature. With Democrats securing a future vote on health care subsidies, the Senate appears ready to break the deadlock.
For markets, the deal may ease immediate concerns, but the temporary fix means investors should brace for another round of fiscal brinkmanship in early 2026.