Tesla (TSLA) has once again proven it doesn’t play by Wall Street’s usual rules. On Friday (the 17th), shares climbed 2.46% to $439.31, brushing aside a fresh "sell" rating from BNP Paribas that had pegged the stock at just $307.
The broader market was steady, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each up 0.5%. But Tesla stole the spotlight—again.
BNP Paribas: Lofty Valuations, No Sales Yet
BNP analyst James Picariello didn’t mince words. He argued that Tesla’s two most hyped artificial intelligence projects—robo-taxis and humanoid robots—currently generate zero revenue yet are estimated to account for 75% of Tesla’s trillion-dollar market cap.
Picariello isn’t dismissing AI’s potential, but he believes Tesla’s valuation bakes in "quite lofty expectations." Even his $307 target assumes Tesla trades at 150 times 2026 earnings—and the stock is already well above 200 times that multiple.
Analysts Divided, Investors Unmoved
Tesla remains one of the most polarizing stocks on Wall Street. According to FactSet, about 45% of analysts rate it a "buy," compared to 55% for the S&P 500 overall. Nearly a quarter of analysts now have a "sell" rating on Tesla—more than double the S&P 500 average of 10%.
The spread in analyst targets tells the story: Tesla’s highest and lowest price targets differ by about $460, more than 100% of the current share price. For comparison, Apple’s target spread is closer to 40%.
Despite the skepticism, Tesla’s stock has gained 94% over the past 12 months, though it’s only up about 8% year-to-date. Investors, it seems, are still willing to bet on Elon Musk’s vision, even if the math looks stretched.
Volatility Is the Norm
Tesla’s trading pattern underscores its reputation as a roller-coaster stock. Over the past 30 sessions, the stock has swung an average of 2.7% daily, with 13 days seeing moves greater than 3%. This week alone, Tesla rebounded 6.2% after dropping 3.8% the week before.
For long-term holders, this volatility is nothing new. For short-term traders, it’s the kind of action that keeps Tesla one of the most-watched tickers on the market.
The Bottom Line
BNP Paribas may be calling for a sell-off, but Tesla’s investor base isn’t flinching. The company’s valuation may rest heavily on unprofitable, futuristic projects, but the market continues to treat Tesla less like a carmaker and more like a tech moonshot.
Whether that faith pays off—or proves to be a bubble—is still anyone’s guess. For now, Tesla remains the stock that analysts love to argue about and investors can’t seem to quit.