Michael Burry—the investor immortalized in The Big Short—is once again making waves on Wall Street. This time, he’s not shorting the housing market or betting against tech exuberance. Instead, he’s leaning into a contrarian, long‑horizon thesis: a revival of Venezuelan heavy crude and a multi‑year boom for U.S. refiners and oilfield service companies.
Burry’s long‑held position in Valero Energy (VLO), first initiated in 2020, has resurfaced after geopolitical developments thrust Venezuela’s oil sector back into the spotlight. According to CNBC, Burry reaffirmed in a Substack post that his conviction in Valero has only strengthened as the U.S. signals deeper involvement in rebuilding Venezuela’s oil industry.
His thesis is simple: Gulf Coast refineries were built for Venezuelan heavy crude, and the return of that feedstock—after years of sanctions and supply disruptions—could dramatically improve refining margins.
Why Venezuelan Crude Matters
Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but its crude is thick, sulfur‑heavy, and difficult to process. Only a handful of refineries globally are equipped to handle it efficiently. Many of those refineries sit along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
As Burry notes, these facilities have spent years running on "suboptimal feedstock" due to the collapse of Venezuelan exports. The return of heavy crude—even gradually—could:
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Improve refinery utilization
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Boost margins on diesel, jet fuel, and asphalt
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Reduce reliance on more expensive alternative blends
This is why Burry believes Valero is uniquely positioned to benefit. And Wall Street seems to agree: analysts highlighted Valero as a top beneficiary if Venezuelan supply increases, and the stock jumped roughly 10% following the latest geopolitical developments.
Burry’s Refining Picks: Valero, PBF, and HF Sinclair
While Valero is his flagship position, Burry also sees upside for PBF Energy (PBF) and HF Sinclair (DINO). These mid‑sized refiners, though less specialized than Valero, could still benefit indirectly from improved heavy‑crude availability and a more favorable refining slate.
Moneycontrol reports that Burry expects all three refiners to gain from a structural shift in feedstock quality as Venezuelan barrels return to the market.
The Geopolitical Catalyst: U.S. Moves Into Venezuela
The catalyst behind Burry’s renewed conviction is the dramatic political shift in Venezuela. Following the ouster of Nicolás Maduro and President Trump’s public call for U.S. oil companies to invest in the country, the U.S. appears poised to take a more active role in reviving Venezuela’s oil infrastructure.
This could unlock:
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New upstream investment
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Infrastructure rebuilding
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Long‑term supply agreements
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A gradual normalization of exports
Burry believes this is the beginning of a multi‑year realignment—not a short‑term trade.
Beyond Refining: Oilfield Services Could Be the Biggest Winners
Burry’s thesis extends beyond refiners. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has suffered decades of underinvestment, leaving pipelines, refineries, and export terminals in severe disrepair. Rebuilding them will require massive capital and technical expertise.
That’s where U.S. oilfield service companies come in.
According to Benzinga, Burry disclosed that he owns Halliburton (HAL) and is bullish on Schlumberger (SLB) and Baker Hughes (BKR)—three companies he expects to play central roles in Venezuela’s reconstruction.
He argues that:
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U.S. contractors will ultimately handle most of the repair work
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Chevron already has a long operational history in Venezuela
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ExxonMobil has been litigating Venezuelan assets for decades
If the U.S. gains substantial influence over Venezuela’s oil sector, these companies could see a surge in long‑term contracts.
Why Burry Likes Halliburton (and LEAPs)
Burry revealed he not only holds Halliburton shares but may add more—or even buy LEAPs, long‑dated call options that allow investors to bet on multi‑year upside with limited capital outlay.
This signals:
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High conviction
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A belief in a multi‑year infrastructure cycle
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Confidence that U.S. contractors will dominate the rebuild
Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Baker Hughes all stand to benefit from pipeline rehabilitation, refinery modernization, and upstream development.
How Long Will a Venezuelan Oil Recovery Take?
Despite his optimism, Burry is realistic about the timeline. He cautions that a full recovery of Venezuelan crude exports could take years, given the scale of infrastructure decay and the political complexity involved.
This is not a short‑term trade—it’s a structural, multi‑year bet.
Why This Thesis Resonates on Wall Street
Several analysts share Burry’s view. CNBC reports that Wall Street has increasingly highlighted Valero as a top beneficiary of any Venezuelan rebound. The logic is compelling:
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Heavy crude improves refinery economics
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U.S. refiners have unmatched processing capacity
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Infrastructure rebuilding creates a second wave of investment opportunities
In a market dominated by AI narratives, Burry’s thesis stands out as a classic contrarian macro‑energy play.
Investor Takeaways
1. Valero remains the purest play It has the most capacity to process Venezuelan heavy crude and stands to benefit directly from improved feedstock quality.
2. PBF and HF Sinclair offer leveraged upside Smaller refiners could see margin expansion as heavy crude availability improves.
3. Oilfield services may be the biggest long‑term winners Halliburton, Schlumberger, and Baker Hughes could secure multi‑year contracts tied to Venezuela’s reconstruction.
4. The timeline is long—but so is the opportunity This is a multi‑year geopolitical and industrial realignment, not a quick trade.
Conclusion
Michael Burry has built a career on spotting mispriced opportunities long before the market catches on. His bet on Venezuelan crude—and the U.S. refiners and contractors positioned to benefit—reflects a deep understanding of energy infrastructure, geopolitics, and long‑term capital cycles.
If Venezuela’s oil sector truly reopens to U.S. investment, Burry’s quiet, years‑long positioning in Valero and Halliburton may prove to be one of his most prescient calls yet.