The Labor Department will release September’s consumer price index (CPI) report on October 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET, even as most other economic data remains delayed by the ongoing federal government shutdown. According to officials, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has recalled staff to complete the inflation report, which had been paused under the agency’s shutdown contingency plan.
Why the CPI Report Matters
The CPI tracks price changes across a broad basket of goods and services and is one of the most closely watched indicators of U.S. inflation trends. Beyond its role in shaping Federal Reserve policy, the data is also critical for determining Social Security cost-of-living adjustments (COLA).
The Social Security Administration requires third-quarter CPI data to calculate annual COLA increases, which must be published before November 1. That deadline prompted the White House to authorize the BLS to resume work on the report despite the broader shutdown.
Shutdown Delays Other Key Data
While the CPI report is moving forward, other major releases remain on hold. The nonfarm payrolls report, a key measure of labor market health, has not been published as scheduled. Additional BLS surveys and data sets are also delayed, leaving investors and policymakers with limited visibility into the state of the economy.
The shutdown, now in its second week, stems from a lapse in federal funding after the Senate failed for the seventh time to pass appropriations bills. Without funding, many government agencies have suspended operations, including data collection and reporting functions.
Market Implications
For markets, the delayed CPI report is both a relief and a complication. On one hand, investors will still get a timely read on inflation, which remains central to expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. On the other hand, the absence of labor market data and other economic indicators makes it harder to assess the broader health of the economy.
Analysts note that the Fed has emphasized a data-dependent approach to monetary policy. With only partial data available, policymakers may face greater uncertainty heading into their next meetings.
A Patchwork of Information
The unusual situation highlights how dependent markets and policymakers are on government data. While private-sector surveys and alternative indicators can fill some gaps, official releases like CPI and payrolls remain the gold standard for measuring economic conditions.
For now, the CPI report will provide a crucial snapshot of inflation trends, but the lack of complementary data could limit its usefulness. Investors will be watching closely not just for the inflation numbers themselves, but also for any signs of how the shutdown might affect future reporting.
The Bottom Line
The decision to prioritize the CPI release underscores its importance for both monetary policy and Social Security beneficiaries. But with other reports still delayed, the shutdown continues to cloud the economic picture. For markets, the message is clear: while inflation data is coming, the broader story of the U.S. economy remains harder to read until Washington resolves its funding impasse.